Rezultati glasanja bosanskohercegovačke dijaspore 1996-2020

Iznevjerena dejtonska obećanja

Kako je nastala bh. dijaspora? 

Kao što sam pisala ranije, Aneks VII i III Dejtonskog mirovnog sporazuma predviđaju mogućnosti fizičkog povratka svih onih koji su prognani iz svojih domova tokom rata, kao i  njihovog  “političkog” povratka, glasanjem iz dijaspore prema mjestu prebivališta iz 1991. godine. Međutim, zakoni i podzakonski akti, koji uređuju glasanje iz dijaspore, su u velikoj mjeri iznevjerili “dejtonsko obećanje” o povratku. Iako potpuno tačni podaci o sastavu bh. dijaspore ne postoje, prema Mapiranju dijaspore iz 2018. godine, znamo da se procjenjuje kako je i dalje većina bh. dijaspore nastala kroz prisilne migracije iz 1990-ih. Međutim, tom broju treba dodati sve ljude porijeklom iz Bosne i Hercegovine (gastarbeiter), koji su prije rata zbog ekonomskih razloga otišli u zemlje Zapadne Evrope, a najviše u Njemačku, Austriju i Švajcarsku. Poslijeratni odlazak, posebno mladih i visokoobrazovanih ljudi iz BiH je nastavljen najviše zbog sveprisutne korupcije, političke nestabilnosti, nedostatka poslovnih i obrazovnih mogućnosti, kao i lošeg zdravstvenog sistema. 

Gdje živi 2 miliona Bosanaca i Hercegovaca? 

Prema podacima iz Migracionog profila, koji svake godine priprema Ministarstvo sigurnosti BiH, procjenjuje se da ima oko dva miliona ljudi bh. porijekla koji žive u zemljama širom svijeta. Ova opšta procjena zasnovana je na podacima popisa iz pojedinačnih država domaćina, što ukazuje da se 1.807.602 osobe mogu smatrati pripadnicima bh. dijaspore, bilo da su državljani BiH, ljudi rođeni u BiH ili oni koji vode porijeklo iz BiH (Tabela 1). Prema podacima popisnih biroa država domaćina, dvadeset zemalja gdje u najvećem broju žive Bosanci i Hercegovci, navedene su u Tabeli 1.

Tabela 1 – Top dvadeset zemalja svijeta u kojima živi bh. dijaspora 

	Država domaćin	Broj bh. dijaspore
1	Hrvatska	373.838
2	Srbija	341.347
3	Njemačka	289.000
4	Austrija	183.169
5	SAD	137.688
6	Slovenija	107.677
7	Švedska	59.939
8	Švajcarska	57.373
9	Kanada	38.479
10	Australija	37.802
11	Crna Gora	32.080
12	Italija	29.624
13	Albanija	29.077
14	Danska	18.196
15	Norveška	14.762
16	Francuska	15.347
17	Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo	10.296
18	Sjeverna Makedonija	8.742
19	Poljska	3.681
20	Turska	3.212

Koji je broj bh. državljana koji mogu glasati iz dijaspore? 

Nadalje, 2 miliona procjene, nije poznat tačan broj ljudi koji bi mogli glasati iz dijaspore, tj.  tačan broj punoljetnih državljana Bosne i Hercegovine, koji žive i rade u inostranstvu. Razlog zašto je teško dati razumne procjene ovog broja leži kako u definisanju dijasporskog glasanja kao glasanja van teritorije države (poštom ili u diplomatsko-konzularnim predstavništvima), tako i u tome što Centralna izborna komisija (CIK) posjeduje samo jedan centralni birački spisak (CBS). Kao što sam već ranije pisala, svi glasači na bh. izborima se tretiraju jednako i svi su upisani u CBS, bez obzira gdje oni glasali – na domaćim glasačkim mjestima ili eksterno. Osim toga, za razliku od redovnih birača, birači koji glasaju putem pošte ili preko DKP-ova se moraju registrovati za svaki izborni ciklus posebno, kako bi ostali upisani u CBS. Također, procjenjuje se da je preko 70,000 ljudi izgubilo glasačko pravo, jer su se odrekli bh. državljanstva. Kada se sve gore navedeno uzme u obzir, veoma je teško dobiti tačan broj potencijalnih glasača iz dijaspore. 

Koliko državljana BiH glasa iz dijaspore? 

            Istorijski gledano, najuspješnije poslijeratno glasanje iz dijaspore je obilježilo prve izbore 1996. i zatim 1998. godine. Pod vodstvom sarajevskog ureda OSCE-a (Organizacije za sigurnost i saradnju u Evropi) i bečkog ureda IOM-a (Međunarodne organizacije za migracije) je organizovna masovna kampanja prijave glasača kako bi se registrovalo preko 450,000 bh. građana i građanki, koji su u to vrijeme boravili u inostranstvu kao izbjeglice. Veliki pad broja registrovanih birača iz dijaspore, kao i onih koji su ostvarili svoje glasačko pravo se dešava 2000, a nakon toga 2002. godine. Glasanje iz dijaspore naglo pada u narednim izbornim ciklusima, najviše zbog prenosa odgovornosti za organizovanje izbora sa međunarodnih organizacija, kao što su OSCE i IOM, na novoosnovanu BiH Centralnu izbornu komisiju (CIK) kao i zbog prelaska sa pasivne na afirmativnu registraciju. U suštini, samo prvi poslijeratni izbori su koristili tkz. “pasivnu registraciju,” odnosno popis iz 1991. godine, kao osnov za registraciju birača, dok je registracija za svake naredne izbore zahtjevala zasebno slanje dokumenata i zasebnu prijavu. I dalje je zadržana ista prakse, gdje se, za razliku od redovnih birača, bh. državljani i državljanke u dijaspori moraju zasebno registrovati za svaki izborni ciklus. Podatke za glasanje iz dijaspore za sve poslijeratne izbore možete vidjeti u Tabeli 2. 

Tabela 2 – Glasanje iz dijaspore na izborima u BiH (1996-2020)

Godina	Registrovani birači u inostranstvu	Broj birača iz inostranstva koji su glasali
1996	458,000	389,000
1998	447,298	362,300
2000	232,739	99,996
2002	58,949	33,267
2004	27,402	18,864
2006	36,441	22,142
2008	33,678	20,338
2010	36,673	22,338
2012	35,171	24,561
2014	42,139	36,309
2016	65,111	42,000
2018	76,729	60,000
2020	Podaci nisu dostupni.	71,278

Kako glasa bh. dijaspora? 

Detaljnu analizu glasanja iz dijaspore za Opšte izbore 2018 i Lokalne izbore 2020 možete pročitati u Ibričević, A. i Zatagić, S. (2022) ‘External voting and homeland politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Reversing the outcomes of ethnic cleansing through diaspora mobilization or voter suppression through procedural disenfranchisement?’ u predstojećem zborniku radova Bosnian Studies Reader, u izdanju University of Missouri Press. Da bismo dobili samo neku ideju o pravcu glasanja dijaspore ilustrativno bi bilo da uporedimo glasove iz dijaspore (glasanje putem pošte) za Milorada Dodika (SNSD) i Dragana Čovića (HDZ), te uporedimo ih sa svim ostalim kandidatima za Predsjedništvo BiH. Kada se sabere ukupan broj glasova koji su pristigli poštom za Milorada Dodika i za Dragana Čovića dobivamo broj (25,494) koji je veći od glasova za bošnjačkog, hrvatskog i srpskog člana Predsjedništva BiH za sve ostale kandidate zajedno (22,782). Potpuno suprotno od “dejtonskog obećanja” o fizičkom i političkom povratku kroz primjenu Aneksa VII i Aneksa III, Milorad Dodik i Dragan Čović, dva kandidata koji konzistentno negiraju državu Bosnu i Hercegovinu, pozivajući na njenu disoluciju po etničkim linijama, zajedno dobivaju više glasova putem pošte nego kada se saberu dijasporski glasovi za sve ostale kandidate (Tabela 3).

Table 3 – Rezultati Opštih izbora 2018. godine za članove Predsjedništva BiH  

BOŠNJAČKI ČLAN
Kandidat	Broj glasova	Redovni	Pošta	Odsustvo, mobilni tim i DKP	Mandat
DŽAFEROVIĆ ŠEFIK – SDA	212,581	207,764	2,994	1,710	DA
BEĆIROVIĆ DENIS – SDP	194,688	191,657	2,009	917
HADŽIKADIĆ MIRSAD – PZP	58,555	56,969	1,327	222
RADONČIĆ FAHRUDIN – SBB	75,210	74,190	413	568
ŠEPIĆ SENAD – NEZAVISNI BLOK	29,922	29,487	268	153
JERLAGIĆ AMER – SBiH	9,655	9,479	101	69
HRVATSKI ČLAN
KOMŠIĆ ŽELJKO – DF	225,500	220,880	3,388	1,093	DA
ČOVIĆ DRAGAN – HDZ BIH	154,819	141,409	11,486	1,465
ZELENIKA DIANA – HDZ 1990	25,890	24,445	1,181	195
FALATAR BORIŠA – NS	16,036	15,654	320	58
IVANKOVIĆ-LIJANOVIĆ JERKO – PEOPLE’S PARTY	6,099	5,971	63	45
SRPSKI ČLAN
DODIK MILORAD – SNSD	368,210	350,585	14,008	2,591	DA
IVANIĆ MLADEN	292,065	279,745	8,761	2,797
POPOVIĆ MIRJANA – SNS	12,731	10,747	1,628	310
KLIČKOVIĆ GOJKO – PRVA SDS	10,355	9,862	329	134

External voting in BiH elections 1996 – 2020

Dayton promises betrayed

How was the BiH diaspora created?

As I wrote earlier, Annexes III and VII of the Dayton Peace Agreement provide for the possibility of the physical return of all those expelled from their homes during the war, as well as their “political” return, which would be achieved through external voting according to the 1991 pre-war census. However, election legislation and bylaws governing diaspora voting have largely betrayed the “Dayton promise” of return. Although completely accurate data on the composition of BiH diaspora does not exist, according to the BiH Diaspora Mapping from 2018, it is estimated that the majority of BiH diaspora is conflict-generated, created mainly as a result of forced migration from the 1990s. However, to this number we should add all people of Bosnian origin (gastarbeiter), who emigrated before the war for economic reasons and settled in countries of Western Europe, mostly Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The post-war out-migration, especially of young and highly educated people from BiH, continued largely due to pervasive corruption, political instability, lack of business and educational opportunities, and an underdeveloped health care system.

Where do 2 million Bosnians and Herzegovinians live? 

According to data from the Migration Profile, prepared annually by the Ministry of Security of BiH, it is estimated that there are about two million people with BiH origins living in countries around the world. This general estimate is based on census data from individual host countries, indicating that 1,807,602 persons may be considered members of the BiH. diaspora, whether they are citizens of BiH, people born in BiH, or those of BiH origin (Table 1). According to census bureaus of host countries, the top twenty countries where Bosnians and Herzegovinians live and work are listed in Table 1.

Table 1 – Top twenty countries of residence for the BiH diaspora 

	Host state	Number of BiH diaspora members
1	Croatia	373.838
2	Serbia	341.347
3	Germany	289.000
4	Austria	183.169
5	USA	137.688
6	Slovenia	107.677
7	Sweden	59.939
8	Switzerland	57.373
9	Canada	38.479
10	Australia	37.802
11	Montenegro	32.080
12	Italy	29.624
13	Albania	29.077
14	Denmark	18.196
15	Norway	14.762
16	France	15.347
17	UK	10.296
18	Northern Macedonia	8.742
19	Poland	3.681
20	Turkey	3.212

How many eligible external voters in BiH elections?  

Furthermore, the exact number of people are eligible to vote from the diaspora is not known. We do not know how the exact number of adult citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina who live and work abroad. The reason why it is difficult to give reasonable estimates of this number lies in the definition of external voting as voting outside of state territory (by mail or in diplomatic and consular missions), and in the fact that the Central Election Commission (CEC) has only one Central Voter List (CVR). As I wrote earlier, all voters in Bosnia and Herzegovina elections are treated equally and all are registered in the CVR, regardless of where they voted – at domestic polling stations or externally. In addition, unlike regular voters, voters who vote by mail or through DCMs must register for each election cycle separately in order to remain registered within the CVR. Also, it is estimated that over 70,000 people lost their voting rights because they gave up BiH citizenship. When all of the above is considered, it is very difficult to get the exact number of eligible voters from the diaspora.  

How many BiH citizens actually vote from the diaspora? 

Historically, the most successful post-war diaspora voting marked the first elections in 1996 and then in 1998. Led by the Sarajevo office of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) and the Vienna office of the IOM (International Organization for Migration), a massive voter registration campaign was organized to register over 450,000 BiH citizens, who were living abroad as refugees. A large drop in the number of registered voters from the diaspora, as well as those who exercised their right to vote, occurred in 2000, and after that in 2002. Voting from the diaspora keeps falling sharply in the next election cycles, mostly due to the transfer of responsibility for organizing elections from international organizations such as the OSCE and IOM to the newly established BiH Central Election Commission (CEC) and the transition from passive to affirmative registration. In essence, only the first post-war elections used so-called “passive registration,” or the 1991 census, as the basis for voter registration. Voter registration required separate submission of documents and applications for each subsequent election. The same practice is still maintained, where, unlike regular voters, BiH citizens must register separately for each election cycle. Diaspora voting data (registration and voter turnout) for all post-war elections is available in Table 2.  

Table 2 – External voting in BiH elections (1996-2020)

Year	Registered voters abroad	Ballots returned (voted)
1996	458,000	389,000
1998	447,298	362,300
2000	232,739	99,996
2002	58,949	33,267
2004	27,402	18,864
2006	36,441	22,142
2008	33,678	20,338
2010	36,673	22,338
2012	35,171	24,561
2014	42,139	36,309
2016	65,111	42,000
2018	76,729	60,000
2020	Still not available.	71,278

What is the direction of the BiH diaspora vote?

Detailed analysis of diaspora voting for the 2018 General Elections and 2020 Local Elections can be found in Ibričević, A. and Zatagić, S. (2022) ‘External voting and homeland politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Reversing the outcomes of ethnic cleansing through diaspora mobilization or voter suppression through procedural disenfranchisement? ‘ in the forthcoming Bosnian Studies Reader, published by the University of Missouri Press. However, just to get a basic idea on the direction of diaspora voting, it would be illustrative to compare diaspora votes (voting by mail) for Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Dragan Čović (HDZ), and compare them with all other candidates for the BiH Presidency. When the total number of votes received by mail for Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović is added, we get a number (25,494) that is higher than the votes for the Bosniak , Croat and Serb members of the BiH Presidency for all other candidates put together (22,782). Completely contrary to the “Dayton promise” of physical and political return through the application of Annex VII and Annex III, Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović, two candidates who consistently deny the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, calling for its dissolution along ethnic lines, together received more votes by mail than when we add all diaspora votes for all other candidates (Table 3).

Table 3 – Results of the 2018 general elections for members of the BiH Presidency

BOSNIAK MEMBER
Candidate	Total number of votes	Regular	Mail	Absentee, mobile teams, DCMs	Mandate
DŽAFEROVIĆ ŠEFIK – SDA	212,581	207,764	2,994	1,710	YES
BEĆIROVIĆ DENIS – SDP	194,688	191,657	2,009	917
HADŽIKADIĆ MIRSAD – PLATFORM FOR PROGRESS	58,555	56,969	1,327	222
RADONČIĆ FAHRUDIN – SBB	75,210	74,190	413	568
ŠEPIĆ SENAD – INDEPENDENT BLOCK	29,922	29,487	268	153
JERLAGIĆ AMER – SBiH	9,655	9,479	101	69
CROAT MEMBER
KOMŠIĆ ŽELJKO – DF	225,500	220,880	3,388	1,093	YES
ČOVIĆ DRAGAN – HDZ BIH	154,819	141,409	11,486	1,465
ZELENIKA DIANA – HDZ 1990	25,890	24,445	1,181	195
FALATAR BORIŠA – NS	16,036	15,654	320	58
IVANKOVIĆ-LIJANOVIĆ JERKO – PEOPLE’S PARTY	6,099	5,971	63	45
SERB MEMBER
DODIK MILORAD – SNSD	368,210	350,585	14,008	2,591	YES
IVANIĆ MLADEN	292,065	279,745	8,761	2,797
POPOVIĆ MIRJANA – SNS	12,731	10,747	1,628	310
KLIČKOVIĆ GOJKO – FIRST SDS	10,355	9,862	329	134