Rezultati glasanja bosanskohercegovačke dijaspore 1996-2020

Iznevjerena dejtonska obećanja

Kako je nastala bh. dijaspora? 

Kao što sam pisala ranije, Aneks VII i III Dejtonskog mirovnog sporazuma predviđaju mogućnosti fizičkog povratka svih onih koji su prognani iz svojih domova tokom rata, kao i  njihovog  “političkog” povratka, glasanjem iz dijaspore prema mjestu prebivališta iz 1991. godine. Međutim, zakoni i podzakonski akti, koji uređuju glasanje iz dijaspore, su u velikoj mjeri iznevjerili “dejtonsko obećanje” o povratku. Iako potpuno tačni podaci o sastavu bh. dijaspore ne postoje, prema Mapiranju dijaspore iz 2018. godine, znamo da se procjenjuje kako je i dalje većina bh. dijaspore nastala kroz prisilne migracije iz 1990-ih. Međutim, tom broju treba dodati sve ljude porijeklom iz Bosne i Hercegovine (gastarbeiter), koji su prije rata zbog ekonomskih razloga otišli u zemlje Zapadne Evrope, a najviše u Njemačku, Austriju i Švajcarsku. Poslijeratni odlazak, posebno mladih i visokoobrazovanih ljudi iz BiH je nastavljen najviše zbog sveprisutne korupcije, političke nestabilnosti, nedostatka poslovnih i obrazovnih mogućnosti, kao i lošeg zdravstvenog sistema. 

Gdje živi 2 miliona Bosanaca i Hercegovaca? 

Prema podacima iz Migracionog profila, koji svake godine priprema Ministarstvo sigurnosti BiH, procjenjuje se da ima oko dva miliona ljudi bh. porijekla koji žive u zemljama širom svijeta. Ova opšta procjena zasnovana je na podacima popisa iz pojedinačnih država domaćina, što ukazuje da se 1.807.602 osobe mogu smatrati pripadnicima bh. dijaspore, bilo da su državljani BiH, ljudi rođeni u BiH ili oni koji vode porijeklo iz BiH (Tabela 1). Prema podacima popisnih biroa država domaćina, dvadeset zemalja gdje u najvećem broju žive Bosanci i Hercegovci, navedene su u Tabeli 1.

Tabela 1 – Top dvadeset zemalja svijeta u kojima živi bh. dijaspora 
 Država domaćin Broj bh. dijaspore
1Hrvatska373.838
2Srbija341.347
3Njemačka289.000
4Austrija183.169
5SAD137.688
6Slovenija107.677
7Švedska59.939
8Švajcarska57.373
9Kanada38.479
10Australija37.802
11Crna Gora32.080
12Italija29.624
13Albanija29.077
14Danska18.196
15Norveška14.762
16Francuska15.347
17Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo10.296
18Sjeverna Makedonija8.742
19Poljska3.681
20Turska 3.212
Izvor: Ministarstvo sigurnosti Bosne i Hercegovine (2019), Migracioni profil

Koji je broj bh. državljana koji mogu glasati iz dijaspore? 

Nadalje, 2 miliona procjene, nije poznat tačan broj ljudi koji bi mogli glasati iz dijaspore, tj.  tačan broj punoljetnih državljana Bosne i Hercegovine, koji žive i rade u inostranstvu. Razlog zašto je teško dati razumne procjene ovog broja leži kako u definisanju dijasporskog glasanja kao glasanja van teritorije države (poštom ili u diplomatsko-konzularnim predstavništvima), tako i u tome što Centralna izborna komisija (CIK) posjeduje samo jedan centralni birački spisak (CBS). Kao što sam već ranije pisala, svi glasači na bh. izborima se tretiraju jednako i svi su upisani u CBS, bez obzira gdje oni glasali – na domaćim glasačkim mjestima ili eksterno. Osim toga, za razliku od redovnih birača, birači koji glasaju putem pošte ili preko DKP-ova se moraju registrovati za svaki izborni ciklus posebno, kako bi ostali upisani u CBS. Također, procjenjuje se da je preko 70,000 ljudi izgubilo glasačko pravo, jer su se odrekli bh. državljanstva. Kada se sve gore navedeno uzme u obzir, veoma je teško dobiti tačan broj potencijalnih glasača iz dijaspore. 

Koliko državljana BiH glasa iz dijaspore? 

            Istorijski gledano, najuspješnije poslijeratno glasanje iz dijaspore je obilježilo prve izbore 1996. i zatim 1998. godine. Pod vodstvom sarajevskog ureda OSCE-a (Organizacije za sigurnost i saradnju u Evropi) i bečkog ureda IOM-a (Međunarodne organizacije za migracije) je organizovna masovna kampanja prijave glasača kako bi se registrovalo preko 450,000 bh. građana i građanki, koji su u to vrijeme boravili u inostranstvu kao izbjeglice. Veliki pad broja registrovanih birača iz dijaspore, kao i onih koji su ostvarili svoje glasačko pravo se dešava 2000, a nakon toga 2002. godine. Glasanje iz dijaspore naglo pada u narednim izbornim ciklusima, najviše zbog prenosa odgovornosti za organizovanje izbora sa međunarodnih organizacija, kao što su OSCE i IOM, na novoosnovanu BiH Centralnu izbornu komisiju (CIK) kao i zbog prelaska sa pasivne na afirmativnu registraciju. U suštini, samo prvi poslijeratni izbori su koristili tkz. “pasivnu registraciju,” odnosno popis iz 1991. godine, kao osnov za registraciju birača, dok je registracija za svake naredne izbore zahtjevala zasebno slanje dokumenata i zasebnu prijavu. I dalje je zadržana ista prakse, gdje se, za razliku od redovnih birača, bh. državljani i državljanke u dijaspori moraju zasebno registrovati za svaki izborni ciklus. Podatke za glasanje iz dijaspore za sve poslijeratne izbore možete vidjeti u Tabeli 2. 

Tabela 2 – Glasanje iz dijaspore na izborima u BiH (1996-2020)
GodinaRegistrovani birači u inostranstvuBroj birača iz inostranstva koji su glasali
1996 458,000389,000
1998 447,298362,300
2000 232,73999,996
2002 58,94933,267
2004 27,40218,864
2006 36,44122,142
2008 33,67820,338
2010 36,67322,338
2012 35,171 24,561
2014 42,13936,309
2016 65,11142,000
2018 76,72960,000
2020Podaci nisu dostupni.71,278
Izvor: Karabegović & Hasić (2019) i Centralna izborna komisija (CIK)
Foto: Altiana Hadrović

Kako glasa bh. dijaspora? 

Detaljnu analizu glasanja iz dijaspore za Opšte izbore 2018 i Lokalne izbore 2020 možete pročitati u Ibričević, A. i Zatagić, S. (2022) ‘External voting and homeland politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Reversing the outcomes of ethnic cleansing through diaspora mobilization or voter suppression through procedural disenfranchisement?’ u predstojećem zborniku radova Bosnian Studies Reader, u izdanju University of Missouri Press. Da bismo dobili samo neku ideju o pravcu glasanja dijaspore ilustrativno bi bilo da uporedimo glasove iz dijaspore (glasanje putem pošte) za Milorada Dodika (SNSD) i Dragana Čovića (HDZ), te uporedimo ih sa svim ostalim kandidatima za Predsjedništvo BiH. Kada se sabere ukupan broj glasova koji su pristigli poštom za Milorada Dodika i za Dragana Čovića dobivamo broj (25,494) koji je veći od glasova za bošnjačkoghrvatskog i srpskog člana Predsjedništva BiH za sve ostale kandidate zajedno (22,782). Potpuno suprotno od “dejtonskog obećanja” o fizičkom i političkom povratku kroz primjenu Aneksa VII i Aneksa III, Milorad Dodik i Dragan Čović, dva kandidata koji konzistentno negiraju državu Bosnu i Hercegovinu, pozivajući na njenu disoluciju po etničkim linijama, zajedno dobivaju više glasova putem pošte nego kada se saberu dijasporski glasovi za sve ostale kandidate (Tabela 3).

Table 3 – Rezultati Opštih izbora 2018. godine za članove Predsjedništva BiH  
BOŠNJAČKI ČLAN
KandidatBroj glasovaRedovniPošta Odsustvo, mobilni tim i DKPMandat 
DŽAFEROVIĆ ŠEFIK – SDA 212,581207,7642,9941,710DA
BEĆIROVIĆ DENIS – SDP 194,688191,6572,009917 
HADŽIKADIĆ MIRSAD – PZP 58,55556,9691,327222 
RADONČIĆ FAHRUDIN – SBB75,21074,190413568 
ŠEPIĆ SENAD – NEZAVISNI BLOK29,92229,487268153 
JERLAGIĆ AMER – SBiH9,6559,47910169 
HRVATSKI ČLAN 
KOMŠIĆ ŽELJKO – DF225,500220,8803,3881,093DA
ČOVIĆ DRAGAN – HDZ BIH154,819141,40911,4861,465 
ZELENIKA DIANA – HDZ 199025,89024,4451,181195 
FALATAR BORIŠA – NS16,03615,65432058 
IVANKOVIĆ-LIJANOVIĆ JERKO – PEOPLE’S PARTY6,0995,9716345 
SRPSKI ČLAN
DODIK MILORAD – SNSD 368,210350,58514,0082,591DA
IVANIĆ MLADEN292,065279,7458,7612,797 
POPOVIĆ MIRJANA – SNS12,73110,7471,628310 
KLIČKOVIĆ GOJKO – PRVA SDS10,3559,862329134 
Izvor: Centralna izborna komisija (CIK)
Photo credits: Alitana Hadrović

External voting in BiH elections 1996 – 2020

Dayton promises betrayed

How was the BiH diaspora created?

As I wrote earlier, Annexes III and VII of the Dayton Peace Agreement provide for the possibility of the physical return of all those expelled from their homes during the war, as well as their “political” return, which would be achieved through external voting according to the 1991 pre-war census. However, election legislation and bylaws governing diaspora voting have largely betrayed the “Dayton promise” of return. Although completely accurate data on the composition of BiH diaspora does not exist, according to the BiH Diaspora Mapping from 2018, it is estimated that the majority of BiH diaspora is conflict-generated, created mainly as a result of forced migration from the 1990s. However, to this number we should add all people of Bosnian origin (gastarbeiter), who emigrated before the war for economic reasons and settled in countries of Western Europe, mostly Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The post-war out-migration, especially of young and highly educated people from BiH, continued largely due to pervasive corruption, political instability, lack of business and educational opportunities, and an underdeveloped health care system.

Where do 2 million Bosnians and Herzegovinians live? 

According to data from the Migration Profile, prepared annually by the Ministry of Security of BiH, it is estimated that there are about two million people with BiH origins living in countries around the world. This general estimate is based on census data from individual host countries, indicating that 1,807,602 persons may be considered members of the BiH. diaspora, whether they are citizens of BiH, people born in BiH, or those of BiH origin (Table 1). According to census bureaus of host countries, the top twenty countries where Bosnians and Herzegovinians live and work are listed in Table 1.

Table 1 – Top twenty countries of residence for the BiH diaspora 
 Host state Number of BiH diaspora members
1Croatia373.838
2Serbia341.347
3Germany289.000
4Austria183.169
5USA137.688
6Slovenia107.677
7Sweden59.939
8Switzerland57.373
9Canada38.479
10Australia37.802
11Montenegro32.080
12Italy29.624
13Albania29.077
14Denmark18.196
15Norway14.762
16France15.347
17UK10.296
18Northern Macedonia8.742
19Poland3.681
20Turkey 3.212
BiH Ministry of Security (2019), Migration Profile

How many eligible external voters in BiH elections?  

Furthermore, the exact number of people are eligible to vote from the diaspora is not known. We do not know how the exact number of adult citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina who live and work abroad. The reason why it is difficult to give reasonable estimates of this number lies in the definition of external voting as voting outside of state territory (by mail or in diplomatic and consular missions), and in the fact that the Central Election Commission (CEC) has only one Central Voter List (CVR). As I wrote earlier, all voters in Bosnia and Herzegovina elections are treated equally and all are registered in the CVR, regardless of where they voted – at domestic polling stations or externally. In addition, unlike regular voters, voters who vote by mail or through DCMs must register for each election cycle separately in order to remain registered within the CVR. Also, it is estimated that over 70,000 people lost their voting rights because they gave up BiH citizenship. When all of the above is considered, it is very difficult to get the exact number of eligible voters from the diaspora.  

How many BiH citizens actually vote from the diaspora? 

Historically, the most successful post-war diaspora voting marked the first elections in 1996 and then in 1998. Led by the Sarajevo office of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) and the Vienna office of the IOM (International Organization for Migration), a massive voter registration campaign was organized to register over 450,000 BiH citizens, who were living abroad as refugees. A large drop in the number of registered voters from the diaspora, as well as those who exercised their right to vote, occurred in 2000, and after that in 2002. Voting from the diaspora keeps falling sharply in the next election cycles, mostly due to the transfer of responsibility for organizing elections from international organizations such as the OSCE and IOM to the newly established BiH Central Election Commission (CEC) and the transition from passive to affirmative registration. In essence, only the first post-war elections used so-called “passive registration,” or the 1991 census, as the basis for voter registration. Voter registration required separate submission of documents and applications for each subsequent election. The same practice is still maintained, where, unlike regular voters, BiH citizens must register separately for each election cycle. Diaspora voting data (registration and voter turnout) for all post-war elections is available in Table 2.  

Table 2 – External voting in BiH elections (1996-2020)
YearRegistered voters abroadBallots returned (voted)
1996 458,000389,000
1998 447,298362,300
2000 232,73999,996
2002 58,94933,267
2004 27,40218,864
2006 36,44122,142
2008 33,67820,338
2010 36,67322,338
2012 35,171 24,561
2014 42,13936,309
2016 65,11142,000
2018 76,72960,000
2020Still not available.71,278
Source: Karabegović & Hasić (2019) and Central Election Commission (CEC)
Photo credits: Altiana Hadrović

What is the direction of the BiH diaspora vote?

Detailed analysis of diaspora voting for the 2018 General Elections and 2020 Local Elections can be found in Ibričević, A. and Zatagić, S. (2022) ‘External voting and homeland politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Reversing the outcomes of ethnic cleansing through diaspora mobilization or voter suppression through procedural disenfranchisement? ‘ in the forthcoming Bosnian Studies Reader, published by the University of Missouri Press. However, just to get a basic idea on the direction of diaspora voting, it would be illustrative to compare diaspora votes (voting by mail) for Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Dragan Čović (HDZ), and compare them with all other candidates for the BiH Presidency. When the total number of votes received by mail for Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović is added, we get a number (25,494) that is higher than the votes for the Bosniak , Croat and Serb members of the BiH Presidency for all other candidates put together (22,782). Completely contrary to the “Dayton promise” of physical and political return through the application of Annex VII and Annex III, Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović, two candidates who consistently deny the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, calling for its dissolution along ethnic lines, together received more votes by mail than when we add all diaspora votes for all other candidates (Table 3).

Table 3 – Results of the 2018 general elections for members of the BiH Presidency
BOSNIAK MEMBER 
CandidateTotal number of votesRegularMail Absentee, mobile teams, DCMs Mandate 
DŽAFEROVIĆ ŠEFIK – SDA 212,581207,7642,9941,710YES
BEĆIROVIĆ DENIS – SDP 194,688191,6572,009917 
HADŽIKADIĆ MIRSAD – PLATFORM FOR PROGRESS 58,55556,9691,327222 
RADONČIĆ FAHRUDIN – SBB75,21074,190413568 
ŠEPIĆ SENAD – INDEPENDENT BLOCK29,92229,487268153 
JERLAGIĆ AMER – SBiH9,6559,47910169 
CROAT MEMBER 
KOMŠIĆ ŽELJKO – DF225,500220,8803,3881,093YES
ČOVIĆ DRAGAN – HDZ BIH154,819141,40911,4861,465 
ZELENIKA DIANA – HDZ 199025,89024,4451,181195 
FALATAR BORIŠA – NS16,03615,65432058 
IVANKOVIĆ-LIJANOVIĆ JERKO – PEOPLE’S PARTY6,0995,9716345 
SERB MEMBER 
DODIK MILORAD – SNSD 368,210350,58514,0082,591YES
IVANIĆ MLADEN292,065279,7458,7612,797 
POPOVIĆ MIRJANA – SNS12,73110,7471,628310 
KLIČKOVIĆ GOJKO – FIRST SDS10,3559,862329134 
Source: Central Elections Commission (CEC)

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